Multiple risk assessment and cost effective analysis after a nuclear accident

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16H05894
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Environmental risk control and evaluation
• Research Institution: Fukushima Medical University
• Principal Investigator: Murakami Michio 福島県立医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (50509932)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: リスク評価 / 福島第一原発事故 / 放射線被ばく / 生活習慣病 / 精神的ストレス / 費用効果分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to perform multiple risk assessment and cost effective analysis after the Fukushima accident and to provide insights regarding a risk management strategy under virtual nuclear accident scenarios. Risk of diabetes and psychological distress was more than one order of magnitude higher than that of radiation exposure after the Fukushima accident. Cost effectiveness of radiation protection measures including food distribution regulation, decontamination and a whole body counter test was more than one to four orders of magnitude higher than that of a general diabetes measure. Further, cost effectiveness of food distribution regulation and decontamination measures was investigated under virtual nuclear accident scenarios. This study highlighted the importance of multiple and well-balanced countermeasures against various risks caused by a nuclear accident.

Free Research Field

リスク評価

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、除染などの放射線対策の効果を明らかにしつつ、福島原発事故でもたらされた糖尿病、心理的苦痛などの放射線以外の健康リスクについても定量的に放射線被ばくのリスクと比較することで、原発事故が放射線被ばくのみならず、身体的・精神的健康に関する様々なリスクをもたらすことを定量的・多角的に評価できた。さらに、原発事故後を想定したリスク管理対策の費用効果を明らかにした。このように、今後の福島復興のために最適なリスク削減対策を提案するとともに、事前の準備として、原発事故を想定したリスク管理戦略の構築に資する知見を提供できた。