A new standard seismicity model with the mixture of statistical and physical models to contribute towards the earthquake forecasting system

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K00054
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Prefectural University of Hiroshima (2019); Tokiwa University (2016-2018)
• Principal Investigator: Iwata Takaki 県立広島大学, 公私立大学の部局等(庄原キャンパス), 准教授 (30418991)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 点過程解析 / 地震 / 時空間モデル / 地震活動度 / ベイズ統計 / b値 / 応力

Outline of Final Research Achievements

To contribute towards the development of a probabilistic earthquake forecasting system in the future, this research project aimed to improve the seismicity model, which is currently considered as a standard one, and propose a new standard model. To model the temporal pattern of earthquake occurrence, a mixture model of a statistical (or empirical) model and a physical one has been constructed. This model exhibits better performance than the current standard model, in particular for swarm-type earthquake sequences. In the modeling of the spatiotemporal pattern of earthquake occurrence, appropriate flexibility was provided to a pre-existing physical model. Consequently, more realistic modeling has been achieved.

Free Research Field

統計科学および地震学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の大きな成果の1つは、従来の標準的地震活動モデルに比べて、よい適合性を示す地震活動モデルを提案出来たことである。これは、地震活動予測の将来展開に対する寄与が大きく、地震災害軽減へと繋がる社会的意義がある。また、予測困難な地震活動の中でも群発地震活動は特に複雑な発生パターンを示すものであり、これに対してモデル改善をなし得たことは、地震発生の背景にある複雑な物理機構の解明へと貢献し得る異議もある。