Inter-temporal judgment and its anomalies

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K03559
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Tokyo University of Science
• Principal Investigator: Shimokawa Tetsuya 東京理科大学, 経営学部ビジネスエコノミクス学科, 教授 (30366447)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 意思決定 / 行動経済学 / 統計的パターン認識 / 神経経済学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Inter-temporal judgment has played an essential role in economic studies and cognitive science. Discount utility models consisting of a stable temporal utility and a discount factor have been widely used in both research fields as the dominant model to depict human judgement due to their ease of analysis. Nevertheless, many empirical studies have suggested that discount utility models have a limited ability to describe people’s behavior. The current study intends to propose a versatile, statistical framework that mines human decision making from observable behaviors. Assuming people use the framework in many decision problems, it would be valid to expect that the use of such a decision-making model could serve as the superior depiction of observed judgements and anomalies thereof. The model presented here would succeed to some extent in depicting observed behavior and serving a coherent explanation for well-known anomalies.

Free Research Field

意思決定

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

通時的な意思決定は経済理論で中心的な役割を果たしてきた。もし仮に通時的な意思決定モデルが妥当性を欠くものであれば、現代経済理論の、特にマクロ経済学や金融理論の、多くの部分において、その基礎が揺らぐことになる。本研究は、マクロ経済学や金融理論において中心的な役割を果たす通時的意思決定モデルに、「行動経済学・神経経済学」、「マクロ計量経済学・金融統計学」の観点から、より強固な実証的基礎づけを与える試みである。