Policy Simulation of AEC Integration and Japanese ODA (MJC2015)

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K03607
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Saitama University
• Principal Investigator: Limskul Kitti 埼玉大学, 人文社会科学研究科, 教授 (40773619)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: Japan ODA

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The Policy Simulation of AEC Integration and Japanese ODA (MJC2015) obtained financial support from the JSPS. It has aimed to 1) Construct a multi-sector-regional model. It is a computable general equilibrium model with explicit Social Accounting Matrices of ASEAN with CLMV, Japan, and the rest of the world. The model syntax is in GAMs. 2) The hypothesis is to test the hypothetical exogenous ODA (Official Development Assistance) impact on both physical and social infrastructure from Japan would have on the CLMV economies towards industrialization with better income distribution and U-turn of migration back to CLMV.
Our model simulation has proved that the ODA from all sources and Japan will have a positive impact on the CLMV and although had little economic repercussion on another ASEAN country. The wage gap of CLMV-Thailand still exists. Net migration from CLMV especially from Myanmar continued. The implication is that Japan/donors should continue the ODA flow to the CLMV.

Free Research Field

Economic Development and Economic Modeling

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

研究結果の学術的意義と社会的意義は、ODAが中長期的に経済成長と所得分配にプラスの影響を与えることを証明することである。これまでの先行研究の中では、途上国へのODAが効果的ではなかったとの結果を提示しているものもあるが、本研究はこうした研究に科学的に反証を加えるものである。