Theoretical and empirical analysis of electoral systems and political behavior: Campaign strategy on manifestos

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K03708
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public finance/Public economy
• Research Institution: Chuo University
• Principal Investigator: Eguchi Kyota 中央大学, 商学部, 教授 (50302675)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 小選挙区制 / 衆議院 / 参議院 / 選挙公報 / 東京都選挙区 / DD推計

Outline of Final Research Achievements

I examine with manifestos "senkyo-koho" how the 1994 transition from multi-member districts (MMD) to single-member districts (SMD) influenced name-promotion strategies among candidates in Japanese national elections from 1977 to 2014. It was expected theoretically that the transition attenuated the individual-oriented campaign but promoted the party-oriented one, suggesting that candidates were discouraged from promoting themselves. Actually, name promotion was less evident among candidates for the House of Representatives following the transition, suggesting it attenuated individual-oriented campaigns. Candidates for the House of Councillors, however, engaged in less name promotion than candidates for the House of Representatives. I have shown with the difference-in-differences (DD) methodology that the transition from MMD to SMD might have encouraged candidates to promote themselves. Results suggest that the individual-oriented campaign has been more valid than previously thought.

Free Research Field

労働経済学、政治経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

1996年の第41回衆議院議員選挙から小選挙区制が導入されて20年以上たち、日本の政治は大きく変容したと言われている。小選挙区制への移行後、政治家は党の公認をとる必要性が高まり、政党執行部の主導性を強めることになったと言われている。この通説自体は必ずしも間違いとは言えないが、定量的な分析によって根拠づけられたものではなく、小選挙区制へ移行してかなりの時間がたつものの、定量的な分析は未だ不十分である。本研究の意義は、「選挙公報」の情報の変化に注目してデータベースを作成したことと、先行研究に比べてち密な計量分析を行い、選挙による政党主導が理論が想定するよりも進んでいないことを示したことにある。