Macroeconomic analysis of quantitative easing by the central bank from the perspective of the micro structure of the payment system

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K03756
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Money/ Finance
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Hajime Tomura 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授 (90633769)
• Research Collaborator: Fujiki Hiroshi
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 決済システム / 信用創造 / 量的緩和 / 財政 / 中央銀行券 / 法貨 / 手形割引

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study analyzes the micro structure of the payment system and the role of the central bank, and drows implications for the effects of quantitative easing by the central bank. The simulation analysis of the exit of quantitative easing using the data available as of June 2016 suggests that the Bank of Japan might suffer an annual loss larger than 7 trillion yen after the end of quantitative easing. Also, the theoretical analysis of the role of central-bank notes in credit creation by commercial banks and that of the need for central-bank money as legal tender indicate that quantitative easing biases real economic activities , because it supplies central-bank money as a store of value beyond the need for central-bank money as a means of payment.

Free Research Field

金融論、マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

標準的なマクロ経済学では、決済システムの詳細を無視する形で中央銀行の量的緩和政策を評価しており、その結果、理論的に予測された効果と日本銀行の量的緩和政策の現実の効果に差異が生じているが、本研究では決済システムの詳細を踏まえた実証・理論分析を行うことで、理論と現実の差を埋め、また、理論的にこれまで明らかでなかった量的緩和政策の負の側面を明らかにした。