2016 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
我が国における高齢化と労働力確保のための新たな戦略に関する定量的研究
| Project/Area Number |
16K04136
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
ギルモー スチュアート 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (20608913)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
中岡 慎治 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 特任助教 (30512040) [Withdrawn]
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | Aging / Demography / Modeling / 高齢化 / 数理モデル / 人口学 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
In the first year of this project several milestones were achieved. A stock-flow model of the Japanese population was developed and implemented, and projections of future trends in Japanese population and the old age dependency ratio (OADR) were prepared. An article is currently being prepared for submission to the journal Demography describing the impact of different policies on the future demographic distribution in Japan. This article has shown that neither immigration nor fertility policy will be sufficient to reverse the trend in Japanese ageing, and that the only successful future policy Japan can consider is workforce reform.
During the first year a collaborative arrangement was formed with the Hamburg Center for Health Economics and the German Federal Ministry of Labour affairs. Data is now being gathered to enable a comparative study of aging in Japan and Germany, and its impact on the health workforce. Through this visit we identified the key issues that Germany and Japan share, and the differences in policy landscape that will make a comparison between the two countries informative.
Estimates of OADR at the municipal level have also been obtained, and will form the basis of a model to understand rates of ageing over time in Japan. This will also be used to explore the possibility of inequality in aging in Japan and its relationship to internal migration.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Initial contact with overseas collaborators has been smooth and enabled the immediate development of a comprehensive plan for comparative studies of the effect of ageing on health workforces in both countries. Model development was completed without major delays, and the model is now flexible enough to be used in a wide range of modeling situations. The study is therefore in an ideal position to complete the goals identified for the second year.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the second year I will visit my German collaborators to develop a comprehensive comparative model of the impact of ageing on the health workforce in Japan and Germany, using data from both countries. Germany and Japan share many demographic and health system similarities but Germany's position within the European Union means it is better able to rapidly change migration settings to respond to aging. This will enable useful comparisons of potential policy responses to aging in both countries.
I will also submit the first paper, describing the impact of fertility and migration policy on aging in Japan and the implications for future policy.
Locally, I will begin estimating the impact of ageing on demand for health services regionally, and forecast gaps in health workforce need at a regional and national level. I will also continue to develop new and improved methods for measuring the impact of aging. I intend to prepare the material for at least another publication in this 12 month period, and possibly prepare a report comparing Japan and Germany's experience of and policy for managing aging populations. I will also conduct research examining the relationship between income inequality, life expectancy and the velocity of ageing at a municipal level in Japan.
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