2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
A quantitative model of new strategies for Japan's hyper-aging society
| Project/Area Number |
16K04136
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| Research Institution | St. Luke's International University |
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Principal Investigator |
ギルモー スチュアート 聖路加国際大学, 専門職大学院公衆衛生学研究科(公衆衛生大学院), 教授 (20608913)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
中岡 慎治 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 派遣研究員 (30512040) [Withdrawn]
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 高齢化社会 / シミュレーション / 人口予想 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This research successfully developed a detailed simulation model of population in Japan, and techniques for assessing the effect of migration- or fertility-based policies on the future of ageing in Japan. This model was applied a wide range of fertility policy and migration policy options, and used to show that all possible policies would have no significant effect on the future of aging in Japan.
During this research I also successfully conducted analyses of various health policies affecting aging, including a spatial model of life expectancy that enables analysis of ageing patterns at the municipal level in Japan, and an assessment of policy responses to NCDs, which are one of the main expected burdens of aging in the future.
This research has implications for the future of aging policy in Japan, and shows that there is no policy that can be enacted at this stage which will prevent aging , and that even returning to the demographic distribution of 2010 will be impossible under any policy settings over the next 30 years. It shows that adaptation to an aged society is the only future path for Japan's health sector.
The results of this research were published in peer-reviewed journals and also presented at conferences, and will present important information both for Japanese policy-makers and for planners in other countries entering the demographic transition.
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