Practical Applications on time coefficient estimation for hourly origin-destination demand from observed link flow

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K06534
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: Nagoya Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Fujita Motohiro 名古屋工業大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (90229013)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: OD交通量推計 / 時間帯別交通配分 / 観測リンク交通量 / 時間変動係数

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Day-long origin-destination (OD) demand estimation for transportation forecasting is advantageous in terms of accuracy and reliability because it is not affected by hourly variations in the OD distribution. This research explores enhancements of the time-coefficient estimate (TCoE) model that estimates hourly OD demands from observed link flows, given proven a day-long OD demand over a large-scale road network. The model is based on a bi-level formulation of generalized least squares and a semi-dynamic traffic assignment. This research examines how to set many variables and subareas in a study area, including outside OD demands in the outside network throughout Japan in order to achieve good accuracy and efficiency.

Free Research Field

交通工学・交通計画学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

OD交通量（出発地―到着地間交通量）の予測は、各地点の交通量や渋滞量をシミュレーションするうえで重要なデータであるが、日OD交通量に比べて時間帯別OD交通量は予測精度を上げるのがこれまで難しかった。本研究では、観測した地点交通量から時間帯別OD交通量を、研究室で開発してきている時間帯別交通予測技術を併用して逆に推定する方法を開発することで、大きく精度を改善させることができ、これは新規性有用性の高い方法といえる。