Policy process of rice market opening in the TPP: A comparison with the GATT Uruguay Round

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K07911
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Agricultural science in management and economy
• Research Institution: Meiji University
• Principal Investigator: Sakuyama Takumi 明治大学, 農学部, 専任教授 (90709081)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 山田 優 明治大学, 農学部, 兼任講師 (10580920)
• Research Collaborator: YAMADA Masaru
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: TPP / ウルグアイ・ラウンド / 日米交渉 / コメ / 政策過程 / 貿易交渉

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, the originally planned research method became difficult to implement due to the US withdrawal from the TPP agreement. Therefore, I estimated an order probit model that uses candidates’ attitude toward the TPP in the 2012, 2013 and 2016 elections as dependent variables, and the various factors suggested by previous literature as independent variables in order to identify the factors conditioning candidates’ pros and cons of the TPP. As a result of the analysis, it was found that, while the election system was by no means statistically significant and the attributes of electorates were not significant in many cases, the political beliefs of individual candidates (affinity to agriculture and Asia, animosity to small governments and immigrants, etc.) as well as the attributes of individual candidates (especially affiliated political parties) were significantly affect the pros and cons of the TPP.

Free Research Field

経営・経済農学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の意義は、衆参両方を含む2012年、2013年、2016年の3回の国政選挙を対象として、TPPに対する国政選挙候補者の賛否の規定要因を解明した点にある。具体的には、単一の国政選挙を対象とした先行研究とは異なって、選挙制度がTPPへの賛否に影響しないことを明らかにした。他方で、野党時にはTPPに反対する一方で与党時には賛成する傾向があることや、候補者個人の政治信条がTPPへの賛否に大きく影響することを明らかにした点も本研究の意義と言える。