Risk Score for prediction of NCD risk: a cohort study

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K13037
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Applied health science
• Research Institution: National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition
• Principal Investigator: GANDO Yuko 国立研究開発法人医薬基盤・健康・栄養研究所, 国立健康・栄養研究所 身体活動研究部, 室長 (60613932)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 体力 / 疾病予防

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to create a risk score providing an estimate of the incidence for hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Two cohorts were used for creating the risk score of hypertension (n=3261) and diabetes (n=10861). Scoring systems were created based on cox proportional hazards regression models for predicting hypertension and type 2 diabetes. During the observation period of 41031 person-years (average 17 years), 1581 people suffered from hypertension. During the observation period of 48052 person-years (average 4.4 years), 483 people suffered from type 2 diabetes.
Cardiorespiratory fitness, age, BMI, SBP, family history of hypertension, and alcohol habits predicted hypertension and constituted the risk score (AUC = 0.65 creation cohort, AUC = 0.69 validation cohort). Grip strength, flexibility test, age, BMI, SBP, and smoking habits predicted type 2 diabetes and constituted the risk score (AUC = 0.71 creation cohort, AUC = 0.69 validation cohort).

Free Research Field

スポーツ科学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、国内で実施されている体力測定の結果を用いて、疾病予測モデルを構築した。日本人を対象として、大規模な体力測定データを用いた疾病予測モデルはこれまでに報告されていない。日本では、子どもから高齢者まで、様々な機会に体力測定を実施しているため、今後は体力測定結果が健康リスクの予測としてより活用されるための研究を試みたい。