The viability of start-ups for neglected drug development by crowdfunding

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K13381
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Management
• Research Institution: Toyohashi University of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Fujiwara Takao 豊橋技術科学大学, 総合教育院, 教授 (70173490)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: MOT / アントレプレナーシップ / バイオベンチャー / リアルオプション / ベイジアンMCMC / ネグレクテッド疾病 / 社会的ベンチャー / 戦略的提携

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Most biotech start-ups target high-value-added disease treatments to overcome the deepening Valley of Death, and then tend to deviate from the many patient needs that stem from tropical climate and poverty in developing countries. However, there are social biotech start-ups developing therapeutic drugs etc. for neglected diseases, in the vicinity of UCSF and UC Berkeley in the US west coast and IISc in Bangalore. They are carrying out the research and development with the supports of the incubators, QB3 in California and C-CAMP in Bangalore, and CARB-X. In particular, with regard to strategies for overcoming Valley of Death, during the financial crisis period as Lehman shock, we analyzed the differences between growing and non-growing companies using real options and Bayesian MCMC. By both evaluating the survivability of the social biotech start-ups' Valley of Death and understanding the growing strategy, the social significance could be evaluated in economic value in the near future.

Free Research Field

経営学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の意義は、先ず、①米国で法制化された税控除（希少疾病医薬法）や、バウチャー（「優先審査保証」及び「小児疾病優先審査保証」）による研究開発投資の回収可能性、②優先審査保証権の金融工学的評価の有効性などに関して、リアルオプション分析を用いた経済的評価を可能にする。次に、エンジェルとベンチャーキャピタルとの投資期間の間での情報非対称下での、クラウドファンディングを通したシグナリング機能について、ベイジアンMCMCによる信頼性の確率的評価を可能にする。そして第３に、社会的バイオベンチャーのデスバレー克服可能性を評価し、成長戦略の特徴を理解することで、社会的意義を経済的価値として評価できる。