2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Developing a method to ascertain the end of an epidemic
| Project/Area Number |
16K15356
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Epidemiology and preventive medicine
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Keywords | 疫学 / 臨床統計学 / 予防医学 / 感染症流行 / 統計モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The end of an epidemic has not necessarily been ascertained by science-based methods. The purpose of the present study was to develop an objective and quantitative method to verify the end of an epidemic. I used offspring distribution that describes the number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case and also the serial interval distribution to develop a mathematical model. The proposed model was applied to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and Ebola virus disease epidemic data. This challenging project was tackled through applications to socially important diseases and the mathematical tool for valid policy making was polished through oral presentations in international conference and also submissions of original research articles.
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| Free Research Field |
疫学
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