2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of a Next-Generation Real-time Forecast-Alarm-Estimate System for Debris Flow Disasters
| Project/Area Number |
16K18160
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Gunma National College of Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
Nagano Hiroyuki 群馬工業高等専門学校, 環境都市工学科, 講師 (20595425)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 土石流 / 警戒避難 / 地盤振動 / 予警報システム / 豪雨災害 / 土砂災害 / 減災 / 自然現象観測・予測 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, debris flow disaster investigation was conducted using aerial photo analysis, field survey and numerical simulation. The results showed that the estimation of woody debris behavior is essential to perform a debris flow damage prediction with high accuracy. Hydraulic experiments were carried out to assess the vibrational characteristics due to a debris flow. An empirical equation that relates vibrational characteristics and flow characteristics is proposed. Calculation model of soil water index using Kalman filter was developed and applied to actual fields. Results indicated that the model is valid for real-time risk estimate system of debris flow disaster.
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| Free Research Field |
水工水理学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
土石流発生時の振動を検知し，その結果を活用した確度の高い予警報技術と被害予測技術の確立を目的として実施した．災害調査を通じて，流木の堆積により土石流の氾濫状況が変わることを明らかにし，被害予測の高精度化には流木の考慮が重要となることを示した．これまでどのような土石流によりどのような振動波形が得られるか不明瞭であったことについて，水路実験より計測した土石流時の振動波形を用いて検討を行い，両者の関係を示した．さらに，現行の土砂災害警戒情報の発令に用いられる土壌雨量指数の算定について，リアルタイムに修正が可能なモデルを開発した．開発したモデルを実流域へ適用し，有効性を確認した．
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