アジアの環境・エネルギー・食料に関連する持続可能な開発目標の定量化

2017 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K18177
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: 藤森 真一郎 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 社会環境システム研究センター, 主任研究員 (80585836)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 気候緩和策 / 環境政策 / 持続可能な発展 / 統合評価モデル / SDGs

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究は、①本年国連で採択された持続可能な開発目標(SDGs)の実現においてアジアが達成すべき、環境・エネルギー・食料に関する数値目標を開発する、そして、②アジア諸国がとるべき政策オプション、求められるライフスタイルの変化を具体的かつ定量的に提示することを目的とするが、今年度は、１）各国政策の収集、２）気候政策の効果とパリ合意の含意について分析を行った。
１）各国の政策については、気候政策、発展計画（経済）、エネルギー計画（電力構成や一次エネルギー供給目標）などを対象とし、データ収集を行った。2015年の国連気候変動枠組条約第21回締約国会議に向けて各国が2030年の温室効果ガス排出量目標を提出したため、その目標策定の際に使われた経済やエネルギー計画等の情報が記載されているものを優先して収集した。それが示されていない国の場合は、さらに各国の関連機関の情報について、各国研究者の協力を得て収集した。
２）上記情報をもとにアジア各国について2030年を中心としたパリ協定に提出された約束草案のシナリオについて定量化作業を行い、炭素価格や緩和費用などについて示した。
３）成果は各種論文としてまとめて出版した。また、グローバル、アジアの長期的な低炭素シナリオ及び、各国のシナリオの結果、さらにモデルについての方程式や将来の想定についてドキュメントを本としてまとめた。
４）本研究で開発したモデルは様々なグローバルモデルの比較プロジェクト等で活用された。

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

年度当初の研究計画から若干の違いはあるものの、ほぼ計画通りに進捗している。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

研究開始から現在まで、ほぼ研究計画通りに推進することができたため、次年度も当初の計画に沿って推進する。アジア各国の現状政策シナリオ、持続可能シナリオの定量化を行い、最終的にアジア全体の結果をまとめる予定である。

Causes of Carryover

（理由）
大型計算機の購入を予定していたが、他予算により賄うことができたので繰り越した。
（使用計画）
次年度は学会発表などで欧州往復が何度か想定されており、それに充当することを想定している。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhou Qian、Hanasaki Naota、Fujimori Shinichiro、Masaki Yoshimitsu、Hijioka Yasuaki
  • Journal Title: Climatic Change Volume: 147 Pages: 77-90
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2131-9
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (2018)
  • Author(s): 2.Zhang R, Fujimori S, Dai H, Hanaoka T.
  • Journal Title: Applied Energy Volume: 211 Pages: 76-88
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An Economic Assessment of the Global Potential for Seawater Desalination to 2050 (2017)
  • Author(s): A Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Coupled with Bottom-Up Energy End-Use Technol
  • Journal Title: Water Volume: 9(10) Pages: 763
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Multiscale scenarios for nature futures (2017)
  • Author(s): Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, H.R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., et al.
  • Journal Title: Nature Ecology & Evolution Volume: 1 Pages: 1416-1419
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes (2017)
  • Author(s): Iizumi T., Furuya J. , Shen Z., Kim W., Okada M, Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., Nishimori M
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 7 Pages: 7800
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand (2017)
  • Author(s): Chunark P., Limmeechokchai B., Fujimori S., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Renewable Energy Volume: 114(B) Pages: 1294-1305
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation (2017)
  • Author(s): Takakura J, Fujimori S, Takahashi K, Hijioka Y, Hasegawa T, Honda Y, et al.
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 12(6) Pages: 064010
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction (2017)
  • Author(s): Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Carrara, S., de Boer, H.-S., Fujimori, S., Johnson, N., Mima, S., Arent, D.
  • Journal Title: Energy Economics Volume: 64 Pages: 542-551
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches (2017)
  • Author(s): R. C. Pietzcker, F. Ueckerdt, S. Carrara, H. Sytze de Boer, J. Desprs, S. Fujimori, N. Johnson, A. Kitous, Y. Scholz, P. Sullivan, G. Luderer
  • Journal Title: Energy Economics Volume: 64 Pages: 583-599
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model (2017)
  • Author(s): S Mittal, H Dai, S Fujimori, T Hanaoka, R Zhang
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment Volume: 55 Pages: 373-388
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model (2017)
  • Author(s): Dai H., Fujimori S., Silva D., Shiraki Y., Masui T., Matsuoka Y
  • Journal Title: Energy Economics Volume: 64 Pages: 627-637
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models (2017)
  • Author(s): O.Y. Edelenbosch, D.L. McCollum, D.P. van Vuuren, C. Bertram, S. Carrara, H. Daly, S. Fujimori, A. Kitous, P. Kyle, E. Broin, P. Karkatsoulis, F. Sano
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment Volume: 55 Pages: 281-293
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An Analysis on Hypothetical Shocks Representing Cooling Water Shortage Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhou Q., Hanasaki N., Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civl Engineers Volume: B1(73) Pages: I_79-I_84
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Abe M., Kinoshita T., Hasegawa T., Kawase H., Kushida K., Masui T., Oka K., Shiogama H., Takahashi K., Tatebe H. , Yoshikawa M.
  • Journal Title: PLOS ONE Volume: 12(1) Pages: e0169733
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Ito A., Takahashi K., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Science of The Total Environment Volume: 580 Pages: 787-796
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change (2017)
  • Author(s): Vuuren D.P., Riahi K., Calvin K., Dellink R., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., KC S., Kriegler E., O'Neill B.
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 148-152
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017)
  • Author(s): Riahi K., Vuuren D.P., Kriegler E., Edmonds J., O'Neill B.C., Fujimori S., et al
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 153-168
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways (2017)
  • Author(s): Popp A., Calvin K., Fujimori S., et al
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 331-345
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector - Quantifying the Narratives (2017)
  • Author(s): N. Bauer, K. Calvin, J. Emmerling, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, et al
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 316-330
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2017)
  • Author(s): S. Rao, Z. Klimont, S. J. Smith, R. Van Dingenen, F. Dentener, L. Bouwman, K. Riahi, M Amann, B. Leon Bodirsky, D. P. van Vuuren, L. Aleluia Reis, K. Calvin, L. Drouet, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, et al
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 346-358
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century (2017)
  • Author(s): Kriegler E., Bauer N. , Humpenoder F. , Leimbach M. , Strefler J. , Baumstark L. , Bodirsky B.L., Hilaire J. , Klein D. , Mouratiadou I. , Weindl I. , Bertram C. , Dietrich J.-P. , Luderer G., Pehl M. , Pietzcker R. , Piontek F. , Lotze-Campen H., Fujimori S., et al
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 297-315
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models (2017)
  • Author(s): Edelenbosch O.Y. , Kermeli K. , Crijns-Graus W. , Worrell E. , Bibas R. , Fais B. , Fujimori S., Kyle P. , Sano F. , Vuuren D.P.
  • Journal Title: Energy Volume: 122 Pages: 701-710
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections (2017)
  • Author(s): Alexander P., Prestele R., Verburg P.H., Arneth A., Baranzelli C., Silva F.B., Brown C., Butler A., Calvin K., Dendoncker N., Doelman J.C., Dunford R., Engstrom K., Eitelberg D., Fujimori S., et al
  • Journal Title: Global Change Biology Volume: 23 Pages: 767-781
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 気候変化による作物収量変化を通じたマクロ経済への影響 (2017)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎, 飯泉仁之直, 長谷川知子, 高倉潤也, 高橋潔, 肱岡靖明, 増井利彦
  • Journal Title: 木学会論文集G(環境) Volume: 73 (5) Pages: I_397-I_405
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] AIM modeling and recent on-going research activities (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Hasegawa T.
  • Organizer: FEEM Research Seminar
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] AIM modeling and recent on-going research activities (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S.
  • Organizer: 1st International Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modeling of GHGs and Air Pollutants
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Macroeconomic impacts of climate change associated with changes in crop yields (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Iizumi T., Hasegawa T., Takakura J., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Climate change cost: A CGE bottom-up approach MiLAiProject (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Takakura J., Hasegawa T., Hanasaki N., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Climate mitigation effects on food security: multi global economic modelling comparison (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Havlik P., Fujimori S., Valin H., Fellmann T., Kyle P., Lotze-Campen H., Mason-D, Ochi Y., Perez-Dominguez I., Stehfest E., Takakura J., van Meijl H.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global food insecurity under climate volatility (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Sakurai G., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Masui T.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Avoid climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment in the context of the Paris Agreement (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Yokohata T., Masui T., Hijioka Y., Honda Y.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ollaborative work between biodiversity impact assessment model and AIM (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Ohashi H., Fujimori S., Matsui T., Takahashi K.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenarios for IPBES using the Shared Socio‐economic Pathways, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Adaptation difficulties in keeping labor capacity under the climate change (2017)
  • Author(s): Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Honda Y., Hasegawa T., Hijioka Y., Masui T.
  • Organizer: Impacts World 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ocio-economic factors and future challenges of the 1.5℃ goal (2017)
  • Author(s): Liu J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hasegawa T., Su X., Masui T.
  • Organizer: nd Global Conference on Theory and Applications of OR/OM for Sustainability
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] aris agreement, Japan policy and Inter-model comparison (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Su X., Liu J., Hasegawa T., Takahashi K., Masui T., Kainuma M., Takimi M
  • Organizer: Workshop on Assessing the linkages between energy modeling finance and integrated assessment, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Strategic Research on Global Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate change MiLAi Project (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Takakura J., Hasegawa S., Hanasaki N., Iizunmi T., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Modeling Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems Dynamics, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An Analysis on Hypothetical Shocks Representing Cooling Water Shortage Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhou Q., Hanasaki N., Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Organizer: The 61st Conference on Hydraulic Engineering, Abstracts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Cooling Water: Economic Evaluations for the Thermal Electricity Sector (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhou Q., Hanasaki N., Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y.
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modelling Transport Energy Demand and Emissions: Development of a Global Passenger Transport Model Coupled with Computable General Equilibrium Model (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhang R., Fujimori S., Hanaoka T., Dai H
  • Organizer: 40th IAEE International Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] AgMIP Phase 2, 2nd round core scenario results overview and some insights (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Takakura J.
  • Organizer: CGRA +1.5 AND 2°C IMPACTS WORKSHOP, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] limate mitigation effects on food security: multi global economic modelling comparison (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Havilik P., Fujimori S., Ochi Y.
  • Organizer: Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment Workshop +1.5/+2.0 °C Worlds and Beyond, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Japan - RITE and NIES (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S.
  • Organizer: 4th CD-LINKS meeting, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Food security (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Hasegawa T.
  • Organizer: 4th CD-LINKS Project Meeting, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Biomass and Food security (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Brunelle T., Cui Y., Frank S., Fujimori S.
  • Organizer: EMF33.5 Working Group Meeting Global Bio-Energy Policy Scenario, -
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 気候変化による作物収量変化を通じたマクロ経済への影響 (2017)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎, 飯泉仁之直, 長谷川知子, 高倉潤也, 高橋潔, 肱岡靖明, 増井利彦
  • Organizer: 第25回地球環境シンポジウム
• [Presentation] 候変動に伴う暑熱ストレスの増大による屋外労働可能時間短縮に対する適応策の検討 (2017)
  • Author(s): 高倉潤也, 藤森真一郎, 高橋潔, 本田靖, 長谷川知子, 肱岡靖明, 増井利彦
  • Organizer: 第45回環境システム研究論文発表会
• [Book] AIM/CGE V2.0: Basic Feature of the Model (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa,Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] AIM/CGE V2.0 Model Formula (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui, Yuzuru Matsuoka
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Thanh Tu Tran, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Asian INDC Assessments: The Case of Thailand (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Bundit Limmeechokchai, Puttipong Chunark, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] An Assessment of Indonesia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Ucok W. R. Siagian, Tomoko Hasegawa, Bintang B. Yuwono, Rizaldi Boer, Gito Immanuel, Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] India INDC Assessment: Emission Gap Between Pledged Target and 2 °C Target (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): P. R. Shukla, Shivika Mittal, Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Hancheng Dai, Runsen Zhang
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] The Effectiveness of the International Emissions Trading under the Paris Agreement (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Izumi Kubota, Hancheng Dai, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jing-Yu Liu, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui,Maho Takimi
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Mitigation Cost: INDCs and Equity (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Risks from Global Climate Change and the Paris Agreement (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Kiyoshi Takahashi, Seita Emori, Shinichiro FujimoriToshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Implications of the Paris Agreement in the Context of Long-Term Climate Mitigation Goals (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinichiro Fujimori, Xuanming SuJing-Yu Liu, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Toshihiko Masui, Maho Takimi
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] Introduction: Overview and Key Messages (in Post-2020 Climate Action) (2017)
  • Author(s): Mikiko Kainuma, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6
• [Book] CHAPTER 8: Global Assessment of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change using CGE Model. In: The WSPC Reference on Natural Resources and Environmental Policy in the Era of Global Change Volume 3: Computable General Equilibrium Models (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Shin Y., Takahashi K., Masui T., Tanaka A.
  • Total Pages: 1632
  • Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
  • ISBN: 978-981-4713-69-6
• [Book] Post-2020 Climate Action: Global and Asian Perspective (Book edition) (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Kainuma M., Masui T
  • Total Pages: 328
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 978-981-10-3868-6