Development of probabilistic model for risk assessment of energy conservation in building equipment

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K18198
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Architectural environment/Equipment
• Research Institution: Kogakuin University
• Principal Investigator: Togashi Eisuke 工学院大学, 建築学部(公私立大学の部局等), 准教授 (00547078)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 省エネルギー / 建築設備 / 不確実性 / リスク / アンケート / 金融工学 / 不動産価値

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, we investigated "the state of use of real building" which is the source of the uncertainty of the building facility system with the aim of developing a probability model of the building use condition which is very important for risk evaluation .

By conducting questionnaires to officials and building managers, we investigated the uncertainty from both the user side and the administrative side of the building and developed a probabilistic model. By combining both models and applying the Monte Carlo method to the energy simulation model of the building, it was possible to express the effect of energy conservation investment as a probability distribution. With regard to this research, we have posted three refereed articles, two of which have been adopted and one by peer review.

Free Research Field

建築環境