Disaster mitigation potential of the elderly and disaster resilience of cities viewed from outing behavior analysis

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K18215
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Town planning/Architectural planning
• Research Institution: Tokyo City University (2018-2019); Waseda University (2016-2017)
• Principal Investigator: NIWA Yukari 東京都市大学, 環境学部, 准教授 (80586751)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 高齢者 / アクセシビリティ / 避難場所 / 立ち寄り場所 / 減災 / アンケート / 災害耐性 / 水害

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In recent years, urban disasters such as earthquakes and floods have frequently occurred. In Japan, where the declining birthrate and aging population are becoming more serious, the elderly are regarded as "vulnerable people in disasters" and are a significant issue. In this study,
we analyzed the relationship between the stop-offs in standard times and the assumed evacuation destinations and clarified what kind of people are likely to evacuate. Besides, we evaluated accessibility considering the physical ability and topographical conditions of the elderly. Furthermore, we analyzed the evacuation behavior of the elderly when a typhoon approached and analyzed the factors that encourage it. This study quantitatively evaluated the disaster mitigation potential of the elderly generation and verified the disaster tolerance of cities where the elderly could play an active role.

Free Research Field

都市計画，建築計画

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年，地震や水害などの都市型災害が多発している．少子高齢化が深刻化する我が国では，高齢者は「災害弱者」として捉えられ，大きな課題となっている．本研究は，自助・共助の力を高める減災まちづくりを推進するために，複数回のアンケート調査，歩行調査，ネットワーク解析を用いてシニアの外出行動や避難意識を調査した．平時における立ち寄りと想定している避難先との関係，シニアの身体能力や地形条件等を考慮したアクセシビティ評価，台風接近時における高齢者の避難行動とそれを促す要因分析等を行い，シニア世代の減災ポテンシャルを定量的に評価し，シニアが活躍できる都市の災害耐性を検証した．