Estimation and the reduction measures of indirect CO2 emissions considering supply chain and household

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K21035
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Environmental policy and social systems; Design and evaluation of sustainable and environmental conscious system
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Nakamichi Kumiko 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 特定准教授 (80599118)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: サプライチェーン / 間接排出量 / 上流 / 下流 / 世帯分布 / 家計消費 / 排出責任

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The estimation of CO2 emission is the basis of climate change measures and sustainable social system. When the solutions of reducing the CO2 emission are discussed, it is essential to take the effect of supply chain’s upstream of industry and downstream which is including household expenditures, population and urbanization into account. Therefore the direct and indirect emissions based on household expenditures are important. The objectives of this study are to estimate the direct and indirect emission by top-down and bottom-up method, to develop hybrid method and to take the emission intensity affected by economic development and policy, household expenditures, population and urbanization rate into account to estimate the future emission. The results show that the emissions will be increased by the regional development policy, urbanization and household consumption. On the other hand, it will be decreased by the improvement of the emission intensity in the upstream of supply chain.

Free Research Field

都市計画、交通計画、環境計画

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

一般的なCO2排出量は運輸・産業・民生部門等に分けて推計されるが、サプライチェーン全体で見ると一連の流れで排出される。本研究課題ではそれらを繋げた上で、特定品目の排出量を積み上げるボトムアップ的手法と、国全体や地域の全体排出量を推計するトップダウン的手法の両面から手法間の長短を組み合わせて直接・間接排出量を推計する手法を独自に開発した。
その手法を用いて推計した結果からは、データ精度も不十分で今まで十分に明らかになっていないアジアの新興国のサプライチェーン実態を把握し、間接排出量の削減策を示すことで、製造者側と消費者側の排出責任の観点から今後の政策について問題提起することができた。