2007 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development and Application of Probabilistic Evaluation Method for Vulnerability of Interrelated Urban Infrastructure to Earthquake Disaster
| Project/Area Number |
17201034
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
TAKADA Tsuyoshi The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor (10302762)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KANDA Jun The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, Professor (80134477)
MORI Yasuhiro Nagoya University, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Professor (30262877)
NAKAMURA Susumu Nihon University, College of Engineering, Professor (40307806)
OHTORI Yasuki The University of Tokyo, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, research fellow (60371431)
IWASAKI Ryoji The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Assistant Professor (60011160)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2005 – 2007
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| Keywords | Seismic risk / Bayesian updating / Macro-spatial correlation / System reliability / aftershock / Natural disaster / Markov chain |
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| Research Abstract |
We proposed i) an evaluation technique for seismic risk considering simultaneous collapse of two or more buildings, and ii) a representation scheme for simultaneous occurrence of two or more kinds of natural disaster.
First, a Bayesian updating technique is applied to a site-specific seismic hazard analysis. Macro-spatial correlation structure of ground motion intensities and correlation structure of spectral acceleration between different periods are proposed in order to consider a simultaneous collapse of two or more buildings. Seismic risk for a spatially-distributed and functionally-interconnected system was evaluated using these correlation characteristics.
Secondly, a risk analysis scheme was proposed for simultaneously-occurred natural disasters. A stochastic model was proposed using a stochastic pulse process. A method for considering a progressive seismic damage by aftershocks was proposed using a Markov chain approach.
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