2007 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development of Integrated Forecasting System of Trade and Traffic Flow and Policy Evaluation for International Transport Infrastructure in the era of Economic Integration in Asia
| Project/Area Number |
17310092
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
IEDA Hitoshi The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor (90168089)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YOSHIDA Tsuneaki The University of Tokyo, Graducate School of Frontier Sciences, Professor (20292881)
OKAMOTO Nobuhiro Daito Bunka University, Faculty of International Relations, Associate Professor (00433863)
WATANABE Tomihiro The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Port and Harbour Department, Head of Port Systems Division (10356040)
SHIBASAKI Ryuichi The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Port and Harbour Department, Senior Researcher (50323514)
ISHIKURA Tomoki The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Airport Department, Senior Researcher (30356050)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2005 – 2007
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| Keywords | Asian Economics / Economic Partnership / International Transport Infrastructure / Free Trade Agreement / Trade Forecasting / Logistics Modeling / International Passenger Flow Modeling / International Maritime Container Cargo |
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| Research Abstract |
Our research results are as follows;
1) Multi-regional International Input-Output Table was developed, especially focusing in Japan and China.
2) By incorporating the developed I-O Table in 1) into existing trade forecasting model (i.e. GTAP model), impacts of various international economic and transport polices such as FTA and infrastructure investment on each Japanese and Chinese region were measured.
3) Commodities were classified based on each commodity's characteristics on unit price of cargo and share by transport mode.
4) International maritime cargo flow model was developed.
5) Possibility of international RORO ship transport in East Asia was analyzed.
6) International passenger flow model was developed.
7) By extending and applying the model developed in 4), international transport policy simulations were examined for China and Mekong River Area.
Throughout this series of researches such as model development for trade forecasting and international freight flow, integration of these models, and policy simulation and analyses, the integrated system to measure impacts quantitatively of international economic policies such as FTA and international transport policies such as infrastructure investment on trade and transport flow pattern for each country in East Asia including Japan.
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