2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Prediction of biodiversity change of the wetland ecosystem with the progress of climate change and land modification
| Project/Area Number |
17F17387
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| Research Institution | Toho University |
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Principal Investigator |
西廣 淳 東邦大学, 理学部, 准教授 (60334330)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KIM JI YOON 東邦大学, 理学部, 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-11-10 – 2020-03-31
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| Keywords | Ecological niche model / Aquatic plant / Wetland / Culturomics / Climate change / Core habitat / Biodiversity |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Understanding the spatial and temporal pattern of wetland species was the main objective of this fiscal year. We predicted historical change of selected aquatic plants species using joint species distribution model. The results identified 1) temporal trend of the relative occurrence of aquatic plants in developing periods (1900-2000s), 2) relative importance of climatic condition and land use pattern on the occurrence of different aquatic plants species, and 3) potential influence of biological interaction in species assemblage network. Related to the culturomic analysis, we compared the spatial pattern of public interest in biodiversity to the accumulated amount of occurrence data at the prefecture level.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Our objective was to evaluate current habitat condition using national-wide records of wetland species and predict spatial changes against different climate and urban development scenarios. As we are in the phase of habitat condition assessment, it seems that we are ahead of our original research schedule. Currently, we integrated 17,463 occurrence records of aquatic plants in Japan and using it for our prediction model. The amount of collected data is larger and broader compared to the initial plan. Parts of our results were also published in peer-reviewed journals in this fiscal year.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
1) Refinement of the ecological niche model: We will continue to refine the results of SDM model by testing different combinations of environmental factors. In this year, potential influence of species interaction will be also tested based on the results of joint SDMs.
2) Vulnerability assessment: We will categorize the relative level of sensitivity and vulnerability against environmental changes. The outcome of this assessment will be overlapped with the designation status of protected areas and further be used to prioritize important area for conservation of wetland species.
3) Culturomic research: We will compare public interest of important wetland sites and identify wetland sites which may need further supports to maintain its conservation practices.
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Research Products
(4 results)
