Power of Words in the Early Escalation Stage of International Conflict

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17H00973
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: International relations
• Research Institution: Waseda University (2018-2021); Kobe University (2017)
• Principal Investigator: Tago Atsushi 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (80457035)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 稲増 一憲 関西学院大学, 社会学部, 教授 (10582041) ; 小浜 祥子 北海道大学, 公共政策学連携研究部, 准教授 (90595670)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 見えない危機 / 戦闘機スクランブル / 安全保障 / 政治学実験 / テキスト分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We studied "verbal escalation" through empirical research on government announcements and media reports in the early stages of international conflicts. The research focused on the initial stages of international conflicts, such as scrambling of fighter jets and violation of territorial waters. We conducted content analysis of government announcements and international media reports. In addition, through various experiments using the information content of "typical government announcements," we examined how citizens of their own and other countries would react upon receiving the relevant information. We were able to confirm that blaming the other country, which makes invisible crises visible, is a powerful force in terms of increasing public support in third countries. In addition, a series of surveys on the Japan-South Korea radar targeting incident in 2018 revealed that verbal escalation dramatically increases distrust of the other country's government.

Free Research Field

国際政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

東アジアの諸国がなぜ相手国非難に陥ってしまうのかを、いわゆるゲームの理論の「囚人のジレンマ」として明らかにし、それが様々な条件で一貫して確認できることを明らかにした。そして、相手国非難が他国政府への不信を生み出す意味で、言葉によるエスカレーションが国家間関係をさらに難しくする悪循環しかもたらさないであろうことを明らかにした。日々の信頼構築と外交チャンネルを通じた穏便な問題解決の重要性を示している。