2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Research for estimation method of population after disaster considering relocation of industrial facilities
| Project/Area Number |
17H02048
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
HIROI U 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 准教授 (50456141)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
関谷 直也 東京大学, 大学院情報学環・学際情報学府, 准教授 (30422405)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Keywords | シミュレーション / 疎開 / 復興 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we developed a simulation to forecast population change in the mid to long term after a huge disaster occurs.
This is not only for the evacuation phase, but also for the period of moving people to permanent housing in several damage patterns and scenarios.
Outputs in this study are two types of migrant simulation. And we verified the accuracy of the simulations based on the cases of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake.
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| Free Research Field |
都市防災
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は，これまで筆者らが行ってきた福島原子力発電所周辺からの広域避難調査や南海トラフ巨大地震時における疎開シミュレーションなどの検討を経て，これまで学術研究として行われてこなかった復興時の人口変動を予測するシミュレーションを初めて開発した．現状では，東日本大震災時の現実の人口増減数と比較した結果，人口増加側の精度に問題がある．しかし，これらの課題が解決されれば事前復興計画の策定や，被災を踏まえた広域地方計画を作成する際の有用な基礎資料となるものと考えられる．
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