2017 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Fertility, Marriage and Female Labor Supply: Implications for Public Policy in Aging Societies
| Project/Area Number |
17H02537
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
Hsu Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
藤本 淳一 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00507907)
Chen Stacey 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (40785680)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | Fertility / Female labor supply / child care |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This research project aims to develop a comprehensive framework in order to provide a number of constructive policy implications for aging societies. We particularly emphasize the effective design of population, education, and labor policies such that the negative effects of population aging on economic growth/fiscal balance can be mitigated. In FY2017, we have studied
1)Literature of theoretical analysis - we have studied the literature to develop an equilibrium overlapping generations model that characterizes households’ consumption, saving fertility, education and labor supply decisions over their life cycle and the interaction with labor market. Potential policy analysis is also studied.
2)Child care, fertility and aging - we have studied the fertility and aging in china and investigate the role of children’s support for parents in China.
3)Tax system, child-care and female labor supply in Japan - we have investigated potential reforms on spouse tax deduction and child-care subsidy and their effects on female labor supply.
4)Data collection - we have collected data from Thailand and Vietnam for understanding the education, fertility, labor supply and long-term care behaviors in developing countries
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Although we have worked on several sub-projects focusing on different countries, it is still challenging to develop a unified theoretical framework for every target country. We are still working on the model development and try to identify the main mechanisms. Data collection from developing countries also takes longer than expected.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We will keep working on the theoretical model and data analysis.
We aim to provide theoretical explanations to observed demographic/labor patterns, quantitative analysis, and policy investigation.
Once a benchmark is set up, we will perform a series of policy experiments for each country we have studied and study the policy implications.
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