2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Fertility, Marriage and Female Labor Supply: Implications for Public Policy in Aging Societies
| Project/Area Number |
17H02537
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
Hsu Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
藤本 淳一 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00507907)
Chen Stacey 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (40785680)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | Low Fertility / Marriage / Female Labor Supply / Population Aging |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
During FY 2018, we continued the theoretical and empirical development to provide theoretical explanations to observed demographic/labor patterns, quantitative analysis, and policy investigation. The following points are the main work we have done:
1. Data collection from several developing countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
2. We have extended the theoretical model to have endogenous marriage and fertility decisions.
3. We have completed the Japanese data collection and some empirical analysis.
4. We have performed some quantitative model simulations.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Although we have got a significant progress on the theoretical framework, it is still challenging to endogenize marriage, fertility, female labor supply together in a life cycle model. We are still working on it.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
For this fiscal year, our work will involve continuing the theoretical and empirical development to deliver comprehensive and constructive policy suggestions.
1. Data collection for Taiwan and S. Korea.
2. Complete the theoretical model and find its solution.
3. Complete the Japanese data collection and empirical analysis. Estimate/calibrate the model as a benchmark.
4. Perform quantitative model simulations with potential policy reforms on labor/education/childcare/taxation policies.
5. Extend the benchmark model to discuss other types of aging economies, including immigrants, informal sector, and other institutional differences.
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