2019 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Fertility, Marriage and Female Labor Supply: Implications for Public Policy in Aging Societies
| Project/Area Number |
17H02537
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
Hsu Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
藤本 淳一 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00507907)
Chen Stacey 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (40785680)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | Low Fertility / Marriage / Female Labor Supply / Aging |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
1. We have constructed a baseline model to study the interactions among fertility, marriage, and occupational choices in Japan in order to enhance our understanding of the causes of low fertility/marriage, along with an increase in the number of irregular workers. The model characterizes a marriage matching market and decisions of married couples on number of children and wife's labor supply. 2. We find a decreasing trend of the fraction of married population and an increasing trend of the fraction of non-regular employment in Japan. 3. We also find that the correlation between men’s marital statuses and their education and employment statuses are high. 4. We have constructed a model to study female labor supply in Japan by taking account of the unique feature of household taxation in Japan and child care costs.
5. We have collected data from other countries, including Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia, for a international comparison. These countries also have declining trends in fertility. In particular, Thailand's fertility rate is as low as Japan's and Taiwan's has even declined to a level lower than Japan's.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
The COVID pandemic since 2020 caused a delay/suspension in research discussions, international collaboration, data collection and research implementation.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We will resume regulation implementation and finalize the results in FY2022.
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