2020 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Fertility, Marriage and Female Labor Supply: Implications for Public Policy in Aging Societies
| Project/Area Number |
17H02537
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
Hsu Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
藤本 淳一 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00507907)
Chen Stacey 東京大学, 大学院公共政策学連携研究部・教育部, 教授 (40785680)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | Fertility / Marriage / Female Labor Supply |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
During this fiscal year, we focused on a subproject aimed at studying the marriage and fertility decisions in Japan. The findings from this project may have significant implications for population policy. To achieve our objectives, we developed a life-cycle model that characterizes the matchmaking process in the marriage market, and the associated decisions on marriage, fertility, and labor supply for both singles and married couples. We calibrate the model to match Japanese data as the benchmark for performing experiments.
Through our experiments, we examined the impact of changes in education and labor market conditions on marriage and fertility decisions. Our research indicates that the increasing prevalence of non-regular jobs, which are typically associated with lower wages, for men in Japan has a negative effect on the marriage rate. This effect leads to a decrease in the average fertility rate. If this happens to female workers, the effect is not significant.
The negative impact of the increasing prevalence of non-regular jobs for men on the marriage rate and fertility rate indicates the need for policies that promote stable employment opportunities and higher wages. This indeed a important policy issue in Japan that needs further research and investigation.
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| Research Progress Status |
令和2年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
令和2年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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