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2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Environmental Infectious Epidemiological Study with Real Time Surveillance System

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 17H07136
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Epidemiology and preventive medicine
Research InstitutionToho University

Principal Investigator

NAKAMURA Takahiro  東邦大学, 医学部, 博士研究員 (00565202)

Research Collaborator NISHIWAKI Yuji  
HASHIZUME Masahiro  
OKABE Nobuhiko  
MISAKI Takako  
Project Period (FY) 2017-08-25 – 2019-03-31
Keywordsインフルエンザ / リアルタイムサーベイランス / 感染症発生動向調査 / 環境疫学 / 時系列解析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In Japan, nationwide data on the incidence of infectious diseases has been collected via the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) since 1981. In addition since March 2014, Kawasaki City has started to operate its own real-time surveillance system (RTS) to collect data on the incidence of influenza from medical institutions across the city. The operating methodologies of the two surveillance systems differed, however, the results identified a strong correlation, confirming the reliability of the RTS.
Influenza virus survival is more closely associated with AH than with temperature or relative humidity. All models used in the study showed a significant increase in the number of influenza cases as AH decreased, although the magnitude of the association differed substantially by model. Furthermore, we found that relative risk reached a peak at lag 10-14 with extremely low AH.

Free Research Field

環境疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

感染症発生動向調査と川崎市リアルタイムサーベイランスではシステム上いくつかの相違があるものの対象期間内の報告数には強い相関を認めた。川崎市リアルタイムサーベイランスは報告数がリアルタイムに更新されること、またインフルエンザの型別が判明することから、感染症発生動向調査と比較すると感染症の早期検知ができる可能性、より詳細な分析疫学的検討ができるという点で強みがあると考えられた。一方、報告医療機関数の変動が及ぼす影響についての検討は今後の課題である。これらを理解した上で両サーベイランスを相補的に利用することが有用であると考えられた。

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Published: 2020-03-30  

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