2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Environmental Infectious Epidemiological Study with Real Time Surveillance System
| Project/Area Number |
17H07136
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Epidemiology and preventive medicine
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| Research Institution | Toho University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
NISHIWAKI Yuji
HASHIZUME Masahiro
OKABE Nobuhiko
MISAKI Takako
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-08-25 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | インフルエンザ / リアルタイムサーベイランス / 感染症発生動向調査 / 環境疫学 / 時系列解析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In Japan, nationwide data on the incidence of infectious diseases has been collected via the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) since 1981. In addition since March 2014, Kawasaki City has started to operate its own real-time surveillance system (RTS) to collect data on the incidence of influenza from medical institutions across the city. The operating methodologies of the two surveillance systems differed, however, the results identified a strong correlation, confirming the reliability of the RTS.
Influenza virus survival is more closely associated with AH than with temperature or relative humidity. All models used in the study showed a significant increase in the number of influenza cases as AH decreased, although the magnitude of the association differed substantially by model. Furthermore, we found that relative risk reached a peak at lag 10-14 with extremely low AH.
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| Free Research Field |
環境疫学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
感染症発生動向調査と川崎市リアルタイムサーベイランスではシステム上いくつかの相違があるものの対象期間内の報告数には強い相関を認めた。川崎市リアルタイムサーベイランスは報告数がリアルタイムに更新されること、またインフルエンザの型別が判明することから、感染症発生動向調査と比較すると感染症の早期検知ができる可能性、より詳細な分析疫学的検討ができるという点で強みがあると考えられた。一方、報告医療機関数の変動が及ぼす影響についての検討は今後の課題である。これらを理解した上で両サーベイランスを相補的に利用することが有用であると考えられた。
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