Interaction between conscious and unconsciou process in causal reasoning

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17H07277
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Cognitive science
• Research Institution: Kwansei Gakuin University
• Principal Investigator: SAITO Motoyuki 関西学院大学, 文学部, 助手 (70801926)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-08-25 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 思考 / 因果推論 / ベイズモデル / 統計的因果推論 / 因果ベイズネット

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of the present study is to explore the interaction between conscious and unconscious process in causal reasoning. I focused on the outcome density bias and investigate how irrational judgments arise from a rational model. The results demonstrate (1) outcome density bias does not occur in causal reasoning with continuous outcomes, (2) similar results are confirmed in causal reasoning about preventive causal relations, and (3) variance in continuous outcomes has a great influence on causal reasoning.

Free Research Field

認知科学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究成果の学術的意義は、不合理な判断が合理的な認知モデルからどのように生じるかを明らかにしたことにある。この知見は既存の認知モデルの拡張を強く推進するものであり、理論的にも実験的にも有益なものと考えられる。また、社会的意義については、人間の思考の合理性と不合理性について示唆を含んでおり、不合理な思考の抑制や合理的な思考の促進につながると考えられる。