2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Natech-RateME"Comprehensive Natech Performance Rating System for industrial Parks to Manage Risks from Extreme Events: Framework Development and Testing
| Project/Area Number |
17K01336
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | Risk management / Natech / Disaster prevention / Industry / Chemical accidents / Rating systems / Area-wide / Resilience |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A comprehensive risk management and performance rating system was developed to assess and manage the risk at industrial parks due to natural hazard triggered chemical accidents (Natechs). A machine learning semi-intelligent framework to extract Natech accident from large databases was developed, and we used graph theory to map and analyze risk factors in the Natech event chains. We investigated the temporal-spatial variation of the incidence of tropical storms-related Natechs, and the accumulated cyclone energy and other variables, suggesting an indirect link between climate change and the incidence of Natechs. Also, an empirical estimation of the probability of tropical storm-related Natechs in the United States from 1990 to 2017, and for several IPCC future scenarios was carried out, confirming an increasing trend. Finally, through field investigations of Natechs in Japan and abroad, and through multistakeholder meetings the results of the research were validated and disseminated.
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| Free Research Field |
Chemical engineering, disaster risk management
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
The development of the Natech RateMe framework that incorporates ideas of resilience engineering, and proposes a paradigm shift. Risk communication and participatory risk governance are main elements yielding immediate benefits for disaster preparedness, while cultivating a cooperative climate.
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