Time-series analysis on relationship between mortality from bone fracture, fall, downfall and ambient temperature

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K01829
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Applied health science
• Research Institution: Ritsumeikan University
• Principal Investigator: Kanamori Masao 立命館大学, スポーツ健康科学部, 教授 (90127019)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 転倒・転落 / 不慮の事故 / 疾病の外因死 / 気温・死亡率曲線 / 時系列解析 / 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose is to clarify the relationship between the mortality rate of the elderly from injury and certain other consequences of external causes (ICD10, XIX) and the temperature in Japanese cities. Methods: Three regions: Kyoto, Sapporo, and Tokyo were surveyed from 2010 to 2021. Results and Discussions: As with the relationship between total mortality and temperature, a regression were most fitted for injury and certain other consequences of external causes in the elderly. In autumn each 1℃ increase in monthly mean of daily mean temperature (MMT) was associated with a 3% increase in accidental mortality of elderly(AM). This study results that elderly mortality from injury and external causes increases at higher rate in the high temperature range than total mortality. In the high temperature environment in the future, there is concern that the increase in accidental mortality of elderly will be higher than the increase in NCD.

Free Research Field

転倒予防　生物統計解析　スポーツ医学　認知症予防

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

損傷・外因死亡（転倒転落）は減少傾向にあった。例外的に階段ステップからの死亡数は増加。65歳に比べ85歳以上は約5倍の死亡率があった。高齢者の生活環境・歩行・行動分析にフォーカスを当てた転倒転落予防対策を打ち立てる必要性がある。
夏の気温の上昇に伴うリスクの増大と共に、冬の月間平均気温1℃の下降は、不慮の事故死亡率が4%上昇した（総死亡率の約3倍）。現時点では、気温の上昇による死亡率への影響よりは、寒冷影響の方が大きいと考察された。しかし、近年夏の気温上昇に伴って、死亡率の相対危険度がより増加していることに注目する必要がある。脱水対策、バランス機能の維持に向けた個人へのアジェンダが重要である。