Voting behavior in a predominant party system: Macro- and micro-analysis

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K03574
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Politics
• Research Institution: Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization
• Principal Investigator: Hazama Yasushi 独立行政法人日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所, 地域研究センター, 主任研究員 (70401429)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: predominant party system / voting behavior / democracy / authoritarianism / Turkey

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research analyzed the factors contributing to the establishment and decline of one-party dominance, using Turkey as a case study. Utilizing diverse public opinion survey data and qualitative data, the study examined the impact of economic performance, anti-corruption efforts, and social cleavages on one-party dominance. The results revealed that the long-term one-party dominance of the ruling AKP was maintained through the halo effect of economic growth and social welfare policies, mobilization of the public through populist discourse, and the exploitation of the failed coup attempt as an opportunity for authoritarianism. However, the study concluded that the introduction of the presidential system, which led to a decline in organizational functionality, and economic mismanagement brought about the decline of one-party dominance.

Free Research Field

比較政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

この研究は、民主主義体制下で無視できない存在でありながら、これまで見落とされてきた一党優位制における投票行動の要因を明らかにした。トルコを事例とした実証分析により、経済業績、反汚職、社会的亀裂が投票行動に与える影響とその変化を明らかにしたことは、投票行動論と民主主義論に大きく貢献すると考えられる。また、一党優位制の成立と衰退のメカニズムを解明したことで、日本や新興民主主義諸国における一党優位制の理解と分析に役立つであろう。さらに、この研究は、一党優位制の下での政治的意思決定や経済政策の問題点を浮き彫りにし、民主主義の質を向上させるための示唆を与えると思われる。