2017 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Was there a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the machinery exports of Japan to the US?
| Project/Area Number |
17K03728
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Keywords | exchange rate / export to US / structural break |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. In addition, it increases the Korean export value in the following quarter by 0.19%. Those results imply that a weakening yen does not necessarily hurt the exports of China and Korea regarding the overall export value. However, it should be noted that the present research does not analyze how the changes in export prices will have a long-run effect on the exports of the three Asian countries through their impacts on the earnings of the exporters of the three countries.
The test for a structural break will be performed after the data coverage is extended to 2017Q4.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Preliminary estimation was done as planned.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
Currently the data covers the period from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4. Since more recent data are now available, the period will be extended to 2017Q4. Then, the test for a structural break will be performed with the new estimation.
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