Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Policies under Scientific Ambiguity

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K03737
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Ryukoku University
• Principal Investigator: Watanabe Masahide 龍谷大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (50434783)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 科学的曖昧性 / 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is a need for policy decisions and policy evaluation derived from scientific facts. However, there are multiple predicted probabilities based on multiple scientific models regarding climate change, and such probabilities are uncertain. How such uncertainty in scientific predicted probability (scientific ambiguity) regarding climate change affects people’s preferences for and evaluation of climate change policies has not been empirically clarified. In this study, we estimated an empirical model based on a decision model under ambiguity, using data from a web survey. We clarify the impact of scientific ambiguity regarding climate change on people’s preferences and evaluations of the policies.

Free Research Field

経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現実の政策評価において、科学的曖昧性が人々の気候変動政策評価へ与える影響を実証的に明らかにした研究はほとんど行われていない。本研究では、曖昧性下の意思決定理論に基づく構造モデルから、科学的曖昧性が気候変動緩和策に与える影響を明らかにした点が、学術的貢献である。また、現実の政策決定においても、科学的曖昧性を考慮することの必要性があることを示した点が、本研究の社会的意義である。