2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
The Effects of Public Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus on Regional Employment and Firm Activities
| Project/Area Number |
17K03764
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
Public finance/Public economy
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Kobe University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
|
| Keywords | 公共投資 |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
I would like to introduce the results of two papers, which are main studies of this project. First, we examine the effects of public investment on stock returns using Japanese cross-industry data. The empirical results show that public investment shocks have strong and stimulating effects on stock returns when the nominal interest rate is at the zero-lower bound (ZLB) . The results imply that the government should increase public investment under the zero-interest bound to prop up the stock market. Second, we examine the effects of the interactions between “unconventional” monetary policy and fiscal stimulus on regional employment in Japan. We run VARs for 9 regions in Japan over the sample period from 1986 Q1 to 2016 Q4. Our empirical findings show that the interactions between aforementioned policies increased employment and decreased unemployment in Tokyo metropolitan areas.
|
| Free Research Field |
公共経済学
|
| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
上記のいずれの結果も，いわゆる「長期停滞経済」の下では公共投資を中心とした景気刺激策が有用であることを示唆するものである．この結果は，海外の著名な経済学者の見解を，筆者独自の分析からサポートするものである．
一方，いずれの研究も，ゼロ金利が常態化していない時になされた財政政策は必ずしも有効ではないとの結果が示されている．中には，雇用ないしは株式投資収益率にマイナスの効果を与えたとの結果も提示されている．
上記を踏まえるならば，長期停滞経済下では公共投資を中心に据えて景気刺激策を行う一方，一旦経済が長期停滞を脱したならばむしろ財政再建レジームに転換するような財政政策運営が要請されることが示唆される．
|
