Development of early epidemic prediction technology for seasonal influenza outbreak using over-the-counter drugs in water as molecular markers

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K05950
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Green/Environmental chemistry
• Research Institution: Akita Prefectural University
• Principal Investigator: Kiguchi Osamu 秋田県立大学, 生物資源科学部, 准教授 (70457761)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 抗インフルエンザ薬 / 医薬品 / 水環境 / 流出負荷量 / 流行予測 / 時系列解析 / 疫学調査

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to develop a technology that can be used to predict the epidemic of seasonal influenza using anti-influenza drugs and over-the-counter drugs including general drugs and non-pharmaceutical health products in the aquatic environment as molecular markers, the concentration levels and effluent loads of target pharmaceuticals in the wastewaters or river waters were clarified during the seasonal influenza epidemic season for three years. In addition, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network using the time-series data of the effluent loads of target pharmaceuticals suggested possibly to predict the transition of the epidemic situation of seasonal influenza.

Free Research Field

環境化学，分析化学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

季節性インフルエンザ流行を早期に把握できる予測法の確立により，的確かつ迅速な予防対応や拡大阻止対策が可能になり，感染拡大の伝播を遅らせることができる。これは，国内はもとより，国外での予防対応や被害拡大阻止対策にも大いに役立つと考えられる。また，季節性インフルエンザの警報は保健所あるいは行政区域の単位で情報提供されてきたが，水系単位での流行予測情報を提供可能になると考えられる。