2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
High precision and high spatial resolution water level prediction method for flood damage reduction
| Project/Area Number |
17K14728
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Keywords | 大量アンサンブル気候データ / 洪水リスク / 台風 / d4PDF / データ同化 / 気候変動 / 適応策 / 洪水予測 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The heavy flood events frequently occurred in recent years in Japan. This study tried to elucidate water level predictability for heavy flood events in terms of characteristic of rivers and rainfall pattern. This study conducted simulations assuming many rainfall patterns which based on actual flood event. The result show spatial distribution of changes of peak discharge and peak water level affected by uncertainty of upstream discharge. Those are correspond to difficulty of prediction. This study used the large ensemble climate dataset (d4PDF) with 5 km grid spacing for analysis of rainfall pattern. By using the thousands of rainfall events from the dataset enables to be consider spatiotemporal rainfall pattern for evaluation of water level predictability.
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| Free Research Field |
河川工学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
これまでに流量パターンに対するピーク流量、ピーク水位の応答特性は明らかとなっておらず、本研究で明らかとしたそれらの特徴は予測の難易度を空間的に示した初めての事例であり、観測点の決定に関しても重要な知見となると考えられる。大量アンサンブル気候データの力学的ダウンスケーリングにより、これまでの数十年の観測では十分に把握できない流域内の降雨の時空間パターンを数千事例から把握可能となり、そのような時空間パターンを考慮した洪水の予測可能性および洪水リスクの評価が初めて実現した。
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