Development of Dynamic traffic control simulator in a social network under emergency circumstances

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K14739
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo (2018-2019); Kobe University (2017)
• Principal Investigator: Urata Junji 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 助教 (70771286)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 避難計画 / 離散選択 / 動的計画法 / 社会ネットワーク

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research examined the effect of social interaction on a discrete choice during a network formation process under a disaster situation. I proposed an analytical framework for the simultaneous evaluation of social interaction and social network formation. And, our proposed model could incorporate dynamic heterogeneity into the expected utility of dynamic sequential choices with a novel structural estimation approach. The incorporating of dynamic heterogeneity into expected utility enables illustrative modeling of more types of decision-making, because decision-making of evcacuees often involves inexact and time-inconsistent expected utilities.

Free Research Field

避難行動解析

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

周辺他者による影響とその伝播過程を評価するモデルフレームを構築したことで，既存モデルでは評価できなかった率先避難等の施策を評価可能とした．災害は稀少現象であり，生じる災害規模は予測しがたい．そこ，他者の避難行動を参考にして，自分の行動選択の参考とすることが多く，こうした行動を再現・予測できる．また，時々刻々と変化する災害の状況を反映した動的な制御を可能とするため，将来を考慮した災害時行動を再現できるオリジナルなモデル構築を行った．