Development of Estimation Method of Future Wind Power Output Fluctuations Considering Smoothing Effects

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K17704
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Power engineering/Power conversion/Electric machinery; Energy engineering
• Research Institution: Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
• Principal Investigator: Ikegami Takashi 東京農工大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (70534460)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 風力発電 / 再生可能エネルギー / 発電出力変動 / 平滑化効果 / 電力需給解析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The synthesized output fluctuation of geographically dispersed wind turbines is expected to decrease because positive and negative changes in outputs cancel each other. In order to quantitatively evaluate this "Smoothing Effect", the power output data at intervals of several seconds at 74 wind power plants in Japan. In this study, novel quantitative definitions of the Smoothing Effect of the output fluctuations associated with the frequency controls of power systems were proposed. Using the output fluctuation rate quantified by these definitions for each power system area, the future output fluctuations, which is the future spread of wind power generation, were estimated. By analyzing the supply and demand balancing of electric power system using these estimated fluctuation data, the effects of the renewable energy output fluctuation countermeasure technology were clarified.

Free Research Field

エネルギーシステム工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

風力発電の出力変動について、平滑化効果を定量化することによって、普及が進んだ状況における変動を推計できるようになった。また、電力システムの運用に合わせて変動量を定義して用いたため、今後さらに導入が進むことが期待される風力発電を既存の電力システムに組み込む際に必要となる需給調整力を適切に評価することができ、必要となる対策技術の効果を分析できるようになった。