Effects of Electoral Accountability on International Conflicts

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K18184
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: International relations; Politics
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Yasui Kiyotaka 早稲田大学, 地域・地域間研究機構, その他(招聘研究員) (60756302)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 国際紛争 / 観衆費用 / 世論 / 選挙

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project analyzes the impact of domestic public opinion and the electoral cycle on audience costs, the political cost of international crises. Its main findings are summarized in the following three points. First, by explicitly incorporating variations in domestic public opinion into the analytical framework, I provide a theoretical explanation for why democracies, which are expected to exhibit uniform conflict behavior according to standard models of audience costs, actually engage in both hard and soft policy making. Second, I show that the magnitude of audience costs may vary with electoral proximity. Third, I show that audience costs are an important factor for political leaders not only at the outbreak of international conflict but also when withdrawing from it.

Free Research Field

国際政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は，観衆費用に関する従来のステレオタイプな知見に対し1石を投じるものである。観衆費用のコンセプトは，今ではもともとの国際紛争の分析から通商問題やその他多種多様なイシューにおいて援用されている。しかし，本来の理論が持つ問題点については無自覚なままである。理論の汎用性が高まることは歓迎すべきことであるが，その理論そのものに対する精緻化の必要性を本研究は示している。