Dependency of uncertainty in weather forecasts on background climate variations

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K18426
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology; Design and evaluation of sustainable and environmental conscious system
• Research Institution: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
• Principal Investigator: Ohba Masamichi 一般財団法人電力中央研究所, 環境科学研究所, 主任研究員 (40466660)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 予測 / 風力 / 再生可能エネルギー / 地球温暖化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study investigated the impact of global warming on Japanese wind energy resources and their short-term variations using the large ensemble d4PDF dataset, which consists of dynamically downscaled historical and +4K future climate projections. The +4K warming future climate projections showed significant changes in wind energy resources that varied both regionally and seasonally. The projected annual production decreased by about 5% over Japan in response to climate change. The relationship to synoptic weather was investigated using self-organizing maps, whereby weather patterns (WPs) over the region in the present and future +4K climate were classified for a two-dimensional lattice. Future probabilistic projections of WPs under the global warming scenario showed both increases and decreases in the frequency of different WPs, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages for wind power generation with regard to future changes in capacity factors in Japan.

Free Research Field

気候学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

将来の主力電源を担う日本域の風力発電量に関して温暖化の影響評価を詳細に行った初めての研究である。TCFD等エネルギーインフラに対する気候レジリエンスの観点から社会的関心と研究ニーズが急上昇しているテーマであり、社会的に影響が大きい。また、将来変化の要因を温暖化の力学的な効果と熱力学な効果に分離する手法を構築するという面で学術的にも意義深い。