Study of the strainmeter network using virtual reality toward improving accuracy of forecasting of the Nankai Trough earthquake

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K18958
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Social systems engineering, Safety engineering, Disaster prevention engineering, and related fields
• Research Institution: University of Shizuoka
• Principal Investigator: Nanjo Kazuyoshi 静岡県立大学, その他部局等, 特任准教授 (10549504)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-06-30 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 地殻変動 / 地震 / ゆっくり滑り / 断層滑り / プレート境界 / 仮想現実 / 確率統計 / 南海トラフ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The Tokai Strainmeter Network (TSN), a dense network deployed in the Tokai region, which is the easternmost region of the Nankai trough, is virtually reproduced on a computer using a database of slow slips that occurred on the plate boundary in the Tokai region during 2012-2016 and information on strainmeter stations operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency in the same region. We developed a method to evaluate the capability of TSN to detect and locate slow slips when strainmeter stations are virtually added to the existing TSN. We are in process to create a software package containing a computer program as well as necessary metadata so that our product can be released. In addition, major parts of the results will be published in international journals (Nanjo, 2019, Capability of Tokai Strainmeter Network to detect and locate a slow slip: first results, Submitted to Pure Appl. Geophys.) and at domestic and international conferences.

Free Research Field

社会システム工学、安全工学、防災工学およびその関連分野

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

将来の南海トラフ地震に備えて、プレート間の固着状況を逐次把握することは重要であり、その精度向上には、固着状況を反映するゆっくり滑りの観測網の整備が必須である。しかし、日本の社会的・経済的状況を踏まえると、地震防災といえども、闇雲に観測点を追加できるわけではなく、コストの抑制と、効果の試算、そして説明責任が今後更に求められる。その解決策の一つを提供するのが本成果であり、仮想現実で歪み観測点を設置し、設置目的に見合うだけの観測能力の向上があるかを試算できる。観測点を現実世界で追加する前に、効果を検証する仮想実験ができるので、コストを抑えつつ、観測網整備の指針を策定する支援ができる点で意義がある。