Development of an HPC enhanced system for finding fine-grained lifeline recovery plans and evaluating their long term economic performance

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18H01675
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Maddegedara Lalith 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (20426290)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: disaster recovery / economic perfoamrnce / agent-based modeling / HPC

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a high performance software to simulate the national economy in 1:1-scale and integrated it with a large scale earthquake disaster simulator to comprehensively estimate the long-term economic performance of given recovery plans. Analyzing data from government sources, such as e-Stat, we identified the parameters to simulate the Japanese economy in 1:1 scale; i.e., consisting of 127 million economic entities. Starting with the conditions of 2015, we simulated the Japanese economy until the end of 2019. Good agreement of the simulation results with the observed records demonstrated that the developed model can simulate the Japanese economy to a reasonable degree. We integrated the economic simulator with an earthquake disaster simulator to seamlessly simulate an earthquake disaster in a large urban area, evaluate the degree of the damage, repair cost, recovery period, etc. of each building, and evaluate the long economic performance of potential recovery plans.

Free Research Field

災害科学に関する計算科学研究

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

開発されたソフトウェアは、災害対策を立案する際、復興計画の長期的な経済パフォーマンスを総合的に評価することを可能にし、南海・東南海地震のような差し迫った大規模災害からの社会・経済復興の加速が期待できます。なお、開発したコードは、ハイパフォーマンス・コンピューティングを利用して大規模経済を1:1スケールでシミュレーションできる唯一のものです。