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2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

Hyojung Lee

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H06385
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

Lee Hyojung  北海道大学, 医学研究院, 助教 (40823365)

Project Period (FY) 2018-08-24 – 2020-03-31
KeywordsEbola virus disease / Recurrence / Generation time / Extinction / Sexual transmission / Epidemic
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The proposed research project aims to quantify the relative contributions of asymptomatic infection and of sexual transmission compared with other routes of transmission to secondary transmission event of Ebola virus disease (EVD) using epidemiological modelling approaches. The criteria of zero Ebola cases defined by the World Health Organization did not explicitly account for the sexual transmission and led to multiple recrudescent events in West Africa from 2015-2016, partly indeed caused by sexual transmission. We proposed a statistical model to compute the probability of the end of an EVD epidemic, accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment of cases. Analyzing the data in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we objectively offers the end of an epidemic.

Research Progress Status

平成30年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

平成30年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2019 2018

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic2019

    • Author(s)
      Lee Hyojung、Nishiura Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Theoretical Biology

      Volume: 471 Pages: 1~12

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.022

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Probability of the end of an Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa accounting for the impact of sexual transmission2019

    • Author(s)
      Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      Innovative Mathematical Modeling For the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data (IMAID2019)
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Sexual transmission and the probability of the end of an Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa2019

    • Author(s)
      Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      Japanese Society for Hygiene
  • [Presentation] Sexual transmission and the probability of the end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic2018

    • Author(s)
      Hyojung Lee, Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      Korean Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (KSIAM)

URL: 

Published: 2019-12-27  

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