Effects of Behavior on Political Trust: What did citizens in greater Tokyo do after 2011 Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear disaster?

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01446
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 06010:Politics-related
• Research Institution: Tsuda University
• Principal Investigator: Nakajo Miwa 津田塾大学, 総合政策学部, 准教授 (90707910)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 政治的信頼 / 日本政治 / 行動選択 / 原子力発電所事故

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project questions whether people trust the government in order to ensure consistency with their own behavior. The case is taken from people’s behavior after the huge earthquake hit Japan and led to the nuclear disaster in March 2011. In the face of the turmoil, some people left the Tokyo area against the government statement to avoid the alleged radioactive contamination and other Tokyo citizens stayed where they were. The hypothesis is that those who left Tokyo expressed later a sense of distrust in the government and that those who stayed later mentioned trust in the government so that they were able to ensure consistency with their own behavior. To test this, I conduct a mail-in survey asking people in the alleged-radioactively contaminated area about their then behavior. The results bolster the hypothesis that people trust government for consistency with their behavioral choice. This project makes a contribution to the trust literature by bringing another perspective.

Free Research Field

政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は「人々がまず行動し、結果的にその方針と一致する政府を信頼する傾向がある」という仮説を立て、2011年の原発事故後に移住しなかったと回答した人ほど、当時の与党である民主党への好感度が2020年時点でも高いという結果を得た。厳密な因果関係の証明にはさらなる調査分析が必要であるが、「政府の政策が評価されているから内閣の支持率が上がる」といった従来の見方に対し、別の視点をもたらすと言えるだろう。