2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Incentive Mechanism and Structural Estimation of Demand for Car Ownership and Utilization in Non-urbanized Areas
| Project/Area Number |
18K01562
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Keio University (2020)
University of Tsukuba (2018-2019) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | ライドシェア / 非都市部交通 / 構造推定 / 実証ミクロ経済学 / シェアリング・エコノミー |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We empirically characterize how automobile demand varies over geographic space and how it affects the economic consequences of climate mitigation policies. We augment a discrete-continuous choice model in a way that accounts for geographic distribution of income, public transit, and portfolio preferences, and show that our model outperforms a naive random-coefficient model in explaining demand stickiness over geographic space. In particular, the model can resolve two empirical puzzles in Japan: Overall price elasticity of demand for vehicle ownership increases with vehicle size; invariance of demand for hybrid vehicles with respect to public transit density. We also use the estimated model to demonstrate the economic significance of this spatial demand heterogeneity: Eco-car sharing outperforms feebates but underperforms carbon tax; The policy impact declines with a decrease in transit density; The naive model overstates the impact in rural areas whereas understating it in urban areas.
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| Free Research Field |
実証ミクロ経済学，環境経済学，応用計量経済分析
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
日本を含む多くの国々では，都市と非都市部間の交通密度の格差が顕著となっている．十分な交通密度の無い非都市部では，公共交通サービス（バス・電車）の維持・拡充は困難であり，今後，少子高齢化・過疎化の進展に伴い，環境負荷の高い乗用車依存に一層拍車が掛かることが予想される．一方，我が国でも2050年までに温室効果ガスの排出量を実質ゼロとする目標が掲げられ，パリ協定の達成に向けた取組みが本格化するものと期待されている．本研究は，都市と非都市部間の交通密度の格差が顕在化する中で，いかに交通由来のCO2を地方の交通弱者に配慮した形で効果的に達成するかという政策課題に対して重要な示唆を与えるものと考えられる．
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