The Macroeconomic Impact of Government Debt Reduction Due to Fiscal Crisis with Intergenerational Heterogeneity

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01658
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Aichi University (2019-2022); Kochi University of Technology (2018)
• Principal Investigator: Arai Real 愛知大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70590462)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 岡澤 亮介 大阪公立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 准教授 (30707998) ; 瀧井 克也 大阪大学, 大学院国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (70346138)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 財政政策 / マクロ経済 / 政府債務 / 財政危機 / 公債

Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1) We show that implementing policies that encourage income redistribution can have a negative impact on fiscal sustainability. The result suggests that policies encouraging income redistribution worsen the fiscal situation and may lead to a fiscal crisis.
(2) Using a two-period political economy model, we show that, contrary to results observed in the country-level panel data, a situation with a high proportion of the young population (or high political power of young people) makes government debt issuance and sovereign default size smaller.
(3) Our panel data analysis reveals that first position order positively affects the evaluation of performances. This result suggests that the order in which policies are discussed may distort decision-making on fiscal policy.

Free Research Field

財政政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本プロジェクトの研究成果は，どのようなメカニズムを通じて財政の維持可能性や「財政破綻」を引き起こす可能性があるかについての新たな知見を得たという意味で，学術的な意義があると考えられる．，国際的な財政政策に関する研究の流れにおいても，学術的な貢献を果たしていると考えている．
また．日本財政や日本経済において，今後取り組むべき財政政策や財政運営を考える上でも，必要となる考え方や知見を提供するという意味で，社会的な意義もあるものと考えている．