Comprehensive Future Projections of Health Care and Long-Term Care Insurance

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01667
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Kyoto Sangyo University
• Principal Investigator: FUKUI Tadashi 京都産業大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10351264)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 将来推計 / 医療保険 / 介護保険 / 公費負担

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The future aging of the population will make financing of health care (HC) and long-term care (LTC) insurance more challenging at the national level. Furthermore, regional differences in the rate of progress of the aging will lead to disparities among insurers in premiums and regional tax burdens for HC and LTC insurance. This study developed a model for estimating health and long-term care insurance finances by region and by insurer. This model provides a framework for estimating the future premium and tax burdens necessary to sustain HC and LTC insurance. The study found that disparities in premium and tax burdens depend not only on the rate of progress of the aging, but also on the mechanism of fiscal adjustment among insurers and future trends in per capita HC and LTC costs.

Free Research Field

社会保障論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

十分な積立金を持たない現行の医療・介護保険制度を維持していくためには，今後の高齢化の進展に伴う保険料・税負担の増大に備えておくためのさらなる制度改革が求められる。改革の方向性の一つは，医療・介護サービス提供体制の見直しであり，もう一つは，医療・介護保険財政を支えるために増大する負担の偏りを可能な限り回避し，幅広い国民の理解が得られるような形で費用負担を求めることである。本研究は後者を研究対象として取り上げ，現行制度の下で将来必要となる保険料・税負担の将来推計値を地域・保険者単位で示すことで，今後の制度改革における議論を進める上での論点を明らかにすることを社会的意義としている。