Economics Analysis for the Determinant of the Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01695
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
• Research Institution: Dokkyo University
• Principal Investigator: Kumamoto Hisao 獨協大学, 経済学部, 教授 (30375349)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 通貨代替 / 負債のドル化 / DSGEモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigated the role of loan dollarization and currency substitution on economic fluctuations in emerging market countries. Our results are as follows: (1) The degree of loan dollarization has significant effects on economic fluctuations through financial accelerator and debt-deflation mechanism induced by real exchange rate fluctuations. (2) Whether consumption and currency index are complement or substitutes could influence the dynamic behaviors of consumption, domestic inflation rate and real exchange rate. (3) The degree of currency substitution has more important effects on economic fluctuations. These finding point out the potential instability caused by currency substitution in the sense that the small rise in the degree of currency substitution would destabilize the economy.

Free Research Field

国際金融論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

新興市場国においても貿易の自由化、金融のグローバル化が進展しているが、それにより発生した種々の通貨危機、金融危機により、当該国通貨が急激に減価するなど、大きな経済変動に晒されている。新興市場国において、安定的なマクロ経済運営を達成するためには金融アーキテクチャーが極めて重要な役割を果たすため、経済変動の決定要因を明らかにすることは政策的にも意義がある。