Progress of trade transactions in Asian currencies: Analysis by market transaction data and company interviews

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01698
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
• Research Institution: Gakushuin University
• Principal Investigator: Shimizu Junko 学習院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (70377068)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 貿易建値通貨 / 基軸通貨 / 税関データ / 為替リスク管理 / 決済手段 / 円の国際化 / 人民元の国際化 / 現地通貨建て取引の拡大

Outline of Final Research Achievements

As the firm interviews planned for this study could not be conducted in the first half of the research period, the analysis has been conducted mainly through publicly advertised research dealing with customs data at the Institute of Finance and Research, in which Shimizu participates, and joint research with the Asian Development Bank using SWIFT data. A paper summarising Shimizu's findings from the calculation of trade-denominated currency shares by country was published in December 2022 as a DP by the Institute for Financial Policy Studies, and has since been reported at domestic and international conferences, with two further new papers published as NBER working papers.
The analysis of the determinants of the trade-denominated currency ratio and currency choice of Japanese firms by country is a useful result that suggests the future of the US dollar reserve and makes a significant social contribution not only in academia but also in business practice.

Free Research Field

国際金融

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

2020年以降に発生した新型コロナウィルスの感染拡大やロシア・ウクライナ危機といった地政学リスクが高まる中で、自国通貨建て取引の重要性が再認識されている。さらに、2022年初頭以降顕著となった円安トレンドは、日本企業のサプライチェーンや輸出入に大きな構造変化をもたらしている。本研究で示された日本企業の国別の貿易建値通貨比率では、従来公表されていた通貨シェアデータと比較して円建てシェアが高いことが示された。こうした情報や要因分析は、今後アジア域内の貿易取引や決済において米ドル以外の通貨の需要が高まる余地があるのかを占う上で、学会、実務双方において有益な情報であり、その社会的意義は大きい。